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“Goals are what keep you in this division, goals win you games and they get you points and right now I just don’t think they have anyone who can do that. You look at them and you think, where are the goals going to come from? I really just can’t see them staying up, at all, because they can’t score.”
I’m paraphrasing heavily here, but this is pretty much the sort of sentiment Mark Lawrenson/Alan Shearer/Alan Hansen trots out to us on a Saturday night when he’s sat on one of those comfortable chairs ‘discussing’ a relegation 6 pointer. I had to paraphrase, after trawling through an archive of Match of the Day(s) and coming up with less in the way of valid points than Derby County in the top-flight. But we, the attentive viewers, know that they say it.
Match of the Day has been declining like Aston Villa in recent years. I know Hansen has retired from his duties of blatantly avoiding praise for attackers on Match of the Day, but this picture sums up Match of the Day, for me at least. Lawro is just doing his own thing, probably telling the ball about his weekend predictions, which ironically are very predictable. This isn’t the Lawro Principle, it’s Lawro’s Law of always siding with the big team. Then the two Alan’s are faffing around with a football each as well, dreaming about the time when they weren’t jealous of Gary Lineker’s Leicester heritage. Speaking of Gary, go and look at his eyes on that picture. Seriously, go look. You can see him screaming silently like a child in a dysfunctional family. Praying he doesn’t spend another 90 minutes with them every Saturday night. Wishing that Walkers would whisk him away to film another crunchy, Lionel Richie starring advert.
There’s less and less actual analysis that isn’t just a replay of a goal with Shearer talking in the least cheerful Geordie accent ever. I found this clip of Shearer analysing QPR’s play during their last miserable stint in the Premier League. Truthfully, it’s not the worst Shearer has ever come out with, not even close, but it is pretty poor. There are two slightly amusing things. This bit is simply a ludicrous stretching of the truth to fit his point. Not even Taarabt, who admittedly can be a very passive player would make that run that is shown by one of my favourite ever white arrows. He would have to run out of his way to do this. Not even Taarabt. Secondly the YouTube description reads ‘must watch for all young attacking midfielders and strikers’. That statement isn’t wrong at all, but the idea of Shearer being the philosophical footballing guru from the far-flung rainy land of Newcastle to teach the new players is hilarious.
Anyway, this idea that the teams that stay up are the ones that get the goals is repeatedly driven into our footballing minds by Lawro and co. Parallel to this idea is that the only way to judge a newly promoted team on their strikers. Even if you do buy a half-decent one but if the so-called pundits don’t know who he is which they probably won’t, then they’ll still wonder ‘where the goals are going to come from’. This season I’ve watched a small sample of Esteban Cambiasso (178 minutes to be precise) and seen what a difference he’s made on the pitch for Leicester. This isn’t the best example considering summer signing Leonardo Ulloa’s goals, but it got me thinking:
Is the key to survival really banging in more goals than your fellow lowly dwellers? Or does being a solid team with a healthy but unremarkable strike tally count for more? I have decided to embark on a pizza fueled investigation to find the truth. After all, the battle to survive is crucial. The losers are forced to one of the most unimagineable tortures known to football fans: Watching Manish Bhasin and Steve Claridge pretend to know anything at all about your teamon The Football League Show.
To quantify whether goals or defence matter more I’ve taken simplistic data from the last 10 Premier League seasons and plan on spinning it to sound far more sophisticated and in a way that supports my argument. Rather like the pundits on Match of the Day funnily enough. I’ve taken the average goals scored and conceded from the bottom three, and will compare it to those that finished in the three places above them. It’s not a particularly accurate way, but I’ll be damned if there’s a better way.
(When I reference how many goals a group scored it’s the combined average, I just couldn’t be arsed to put average every single time. As much as I’d like to be the English Zach Lowe my grasp on even the simplest stats isn’t fantastic, so please feel free to angrily correct anything I’ve inferred from the numbers.)
2004/05 Season
It was the time when a fresh-faced Mourinho took the Premier League by storm and captured the hearts of many a tabloid, which has subsequently continued to even present day as they gobble up every last Iberian accented soundbite from his stubbly mug. Crystal Palace, Southampton and Norwich were the unlucky trio, with West Brom scraping by and Portsmouth and Blackburn somewhat comfortably surviving.
The relegated group scored 42.6 goals and conceded 68.3.
The fortunate three scored 37 on the dot and conceded 54.3.
A quick summary of the differentials shows the relegated group scored more goals and also allowed the rest of the league to stroll through a gathering of men in their squad disguised as a defence. The safe sods conceded around 12 less on average. Thus backing up my point. It’s tempting to stop here and claim a controversial victory over my Lancashire-born counterpart. I’ll push on.
2005/06 Season
Chelsea won again and Portsmouth were still a football club and not an advertising mechanism for administration companies. Arsenal beat out their North London rivals to the final Champions League spot to ensure that their fans could bring up qualifying for it for god knows how many years consecutively. Those making the drop to the second division were Birmingham, West Brom and Sunderland, with pre-money Manchester City, Aston Villa and Portsmouth (again) escaping.
The relegated teams scored a pitiful 28.3 and conceded 59.
Those spared scored 40.6 and conceded 55.
Bollocks. This was not part of the plan. The ones that retained top-flight status scored a whopping 12 goals more roughly, but also conceded exactly 4 less. The bigger differential is on goals scored, so chalk this one up for Lawro.
2006/07 Season
Manchester United returned to the top for the first time since the 2002/03 season. Portsmouth’s late season revival the previous spring carried into this season as they bounced back to 9th with Kanu grabbing 10 league goals. David Bentley also existed. Sheffield United and Watford marked their fleeting appearances by getting relegated along with Charlton. This saved Wigan, Fulham and West Ham.
Those less fortunate scored 31.6 and conceded 58.
Those more fortunate scored 36.6 and conceded 59.3
Hmm. Another one for Lawro this, with the survivors scoring a few more and, crucially for the verdict, actually conceding more as well.
2007/08 Season
I’m really debating ruling this season invalid. This is the season Derby County entered the lion’s den of the Premiership. Describing what happened is simply too brutal so I’ll move on by telling you that Birmingham and Reading both shared Derby’s relegation pain, while Fulham, Sunderland and Bolton skipped free. This year also saw the last appearance of the prestigious and fan favourite Intertoto Cup, which Aston Villa competed in. Buckle up for KOBE BRYANT Derby skewing the stats massively…
The teams that went down scored 35.6 and conceded 72.3. (!!!)
The teams that stayed up scored 36.6 and conceded 57.6.
Derby’s shitshow of a season is a good enough reason to not use this data and say it’s unrepresentative. However it nicely fits in with my challenging of The Lawro Principle. A massive difference in goals conceded and a barely discernible 1 goal swing between the two groups says that this one goes with me. Let’s use this data.
2008/09 Season
Liverpool’s once a decade challenge for the Premier League went close, just pipped by rivals Manchester United. Villa came 6th and Manchester City were now rich, but not good yet. Newcastle didn’t have Pardew, but they were relegated along with a fading Middlesbrough and West Brom. Blackburn and Sunderland remained with room to spare, but Hull squeezed in by a point.
The relegated group scored 34.6 and conceded 61.
The ‘WE ARE PREMIER LEAGUE’ group scored 37.6 and conceded 59.3
A bit meh, this one. The difference on either isn’t that substantial, and the season itself looking back on it for most is about as memorable as Pepe Mel. The higher differential goes to goals scored so this one supports Mark Lawrenson. Even Mark Lawrenson if he was on crack.
2009/10 Season
Getting closer to home now. Chelsea were back on top and Tottenham finally made it to the Champions League where their best highlight the next year would be a 4-3 loss. I think this says a lot about Tottenham. Looking to the less glamorous end of the country and of the table, we see our last acquaintance with the plucky and likeable Portsmouth now as they and Burnley and Hull all dropped out. The 3Ws survived: Wigan, West Ham and Wolves.
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Those that fell scored 36.6 and conceded 74.3 (!!!)
Those that briefly rose and have all since fallen at least one scored 38.6 and conceded 67.
Finding synonyms for relegated is hard. A stupendous amount of goals conceded made it clear to see why those three went down, a higher total than the season Derby County were involved. Much less difference on goals scored so this one goes my way, it’s a close contest so far.
2010/11 Season
We’ve come this far, let’s not turn back now. Manchester Red won the title. Manchester Blue were now a good team, qualifying for the Champions League. West Midlands City (Birmingham), Booktale (Blackpool, apparently. Yeah, went over my head as well) and East London (West Ham) all got relegated. Wolves (Wolves), Lancashire Athletic (Wigan) and Lancashire (Blackburn. Think it’s unfair that they can stake claim to the whole fucking county.) all stayed up.
The poor piggies that ran all the way home to the Championship scored 45 and conceded 68.6.
The smug piggies that stayed in the Premier League Market scored 44 and conceded 62.
Thought I’d use a PES theme to wake you all up. Differential examining time! Those that remained only scored 1 more goal but conceded over 6 less. Although we did have to say goodbye to a fun Blackpool team that briefly filled a Portsmouth shaped hole in my heart. Right now everything’s going my way, take that Lawro you nan-exploiting Irishman!
That’s come off a lot, lot worse than intended. It was more a dig at him using his family’s Irish roots to play for the land of Guinness than anything more sinister. I’m not his biggest fan but come on, that’s a low blow.
2011/12 Season
“Manchester City still alive here, Balotelli…Agueroooooo!” Yeah. That happened. But the real Lancashire story of the season was Blackburn and the odd war between manager Steve Kean and the owners who were Vincent Tan-esque. Without the colour change or outfits It was interesting watching the press not particularly like either of them. One-time Leicester legend Yakubu played for Blackburn at the time. Also going down, Bolton and Wolves. Wigan, Villa and QPR all lived to fight another top-tier day.
Manish Bhasin’s latest recruits scored 44.6 and conceded 79. (SEVENTY NINE).
Those free from the clutches of the Asian male equivalent of Hazel Irvine scored 40.6 and conceded 60.3.
Well if three teams that didn’t get relegated conceded on average more than 79 goals, then the league needs a serious re-think. An easy win for me here, and it puts The Lawro Principle on the brink.
2012/13 Season
Not a very memorable season it has to be said. Unless you’re a Manchester United supporter. They reclaimed the league by a wide margin, as City floundered in their defence. QPR, Reading and Wigan all sank to the bottom. The two northernmost clubs, Sunderland and Newcastle just about didn’t drown, along with Aston Villa who had a shit season. There’s no two ways about it.
The losers scored 40 and conceded 68.6.
The less shit losers scored 44.3 and conceded 63.6.
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Ooh closer than a Vanarama Conference match with both strikers having been sent off. Can I just mention that Vanarama is possibly one of the best sponsorship choices in relation to its product? The Vanarama Conference. Fantastic. The conceded differential is just barely higher than the scored column though, so another one goes to me.
2013/14 Season
Finally. We got through them. Me oh my it’s been tedious at times. Last season contained one of the best title races of all time in the Premier League era and also a thrilling relegation battle that involved pretty much every team outside the top 8. Cardiff, Fulham and Norwich all went down after 4 combined sackings of managers. West Brom, Hull and Aston Villa squirmed out of the relegation zone like Gazza’ squirmed when Vinnie copped a good feel. Honourable mention to Palace who chose the Paulo Di Canio route of hiring a manager, watching him guide you to safety and then making him pack his bags.
The relegated teams scored 33.3 and conceded 73.6.
The not relegated teams scored 40 and conceded 57.6.
A final differential check. It shows that once again the teams that went down had a worse defence than they did attack, in comparison to those a little better off. Think I’ve won this comfortably now.
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Now bear in mind I’ve done a lot of KS3 Maths tonight and looked at a lot of crap teams so if I make an error now kindly excuse me. But I think, I think, I won 7-3 on ‘the differentials game’ which is not a very catchy name at all. However there was a general correlation of those that stayed up scoring more goals than those who didn’t. This conforms to the Lawro Principle. So we’re both sort of right. Although I’ve never been caught eyeing up Gabby Logan, so if you don’t mind I’ll count this as a victory for yours truly.